Waitaki District Population Projections
Council forecasts predict Waitaki District should see an increase in population and dwelling numbers over the next 30 years. Strong growth in the number of dwellings is expected, with a 28% increase in dwelling numbers expected over the next thirty years. The growth in dwellings is due to the impact of the national trend towards smaller households, and an increase in holiday homes in some parts of the District.
Statistics New Zealand predicts a decline in the Waitaki District population, however the Council commissioned Rationale consultants to carry out additional research on the impact of three factors that it considered were likely to have a substantial effect on population. These were irrigation and winery expansion, and the development of Holcim Cement Works. Rationale used existing research regarding the impact of irrigation and winery development and Holcim’s development on the workforce to develop a set of alternative population projections. These predict that the usually resident population of Waitaki District will increase from 20,223 in 2006 and peak in 2016 at 22,203 residents, and then decrease to 21,298 in 2036.
A copy of Rationale’s report can be accessed here (PDF 4.5Mb).
In the period to 2016, the construction phase of the Holcim plant is expected to result in substantial population growth. Once the Plant is in operation, the number of workers employed is expected to reduce and stabilise, with the long term impact on population being an additional 467 residents.
The impact of the expansion of irrigation schemes is expected to be the factor with the single biggest impact on population. By 2036 an additional 1,620 people are expected to reside in the district as a result of irrigation development. Winery development is also expected to have an impact on the population growth, particularly in the Kurow and Omarama area.
The usually resident populations of Kurow and Omarama are expected to increase as a consequence of winery development. Population growth is also predicted for Moeraki while a decline in residents is forecast for Hampden, Kakanui and Otematata. The number of dwellings in all of these towns is expected to increase, due to the trends towards smaller households and an increase in holiday homes.
Most of the population growth in the District is expected to occur in the areas surrounding Oamaru, with a 57% population increase forecast in the outskirts of Oamaru.
Visitor numbers to the District are expected to increase from 3,053 in 2006 to 5,244 in 2036.
The Council will use the above information to help prepare its 2009 – 2019 Community Plan which is a ten year plan of Council services and expenditure.